Quantum computing is often framed as a technology that will only become commercially meaningful once fault-tolerant systems arrive, capable of correcting errors at scale and unlocking stable, large-scale computations. While that milestone is critical, it has also created a dangerous misconception: that companies can afford to wait until the hardware fully matures before engaging with the ecosystem, building expertise, or identifying early use cases.
“The short answer is 18 to 24 months before you plan to ship your system with your clients,” Carman says. “You need to seek opportunities, nurture relationships, win the business, build the system, and then deliver it. Those things take time.” That timeline changes how leaders should think about quantum commercialization. Commercial success starts years earlier, with deliberate investment in customers, partnerships, and commercial infrastructure. The companies that recognize this distinction are positioning themselves for leadership in one of the most significant technology transitions of the next generation.
Commercial Value Begins Before Perfect Technology
Much of the conversation around quantum focuses on fault tolerance – the milestone expected to unlock broad transformational applications. While scientifically important, Carman argues that waiting for perfect systems overlooks where commercial momentum actually begins.
Building a business around deep technology (deep tech) requires recognizing that sales cycles, manufacturing, deployment, and customer adoption move on entirely different timelines from scientific breakthroughs. Revenue does not suddenly appear once technology reaches maturity. It is built through years of preparation.
Commercial organizations therefore play a much larger role than simply closing deals. They identify early adopters, educate technical buyers, develop partner ecosystems, and remain engaged through deployment to ensure systems meet customer specifications. This creates a different definition of readiness. Scientific readiness alone is not enough; engineering readiness and commercial readiness must develop alongside it for organizations to capitalize on major breakthroughs when they arrive.
Selling What Customers Have Not Yet Asked For
Perhaps the greatest challenge in deep tech go-to-market strategy is that customers rarely request technologies they have never experienced. Successful commercialization depends on translating scientific capability into immediate business value rather than asking buyers to believe in distant possibilities. Carman compares today’s quantum opportunity to the early days of the automobile. Customers were not looking for a better way to connect more horses. They simply had problems that eventually found a dramatically better solution.
“You never deliver to market innovations that are precisely what people are imagining in their heads,” he says. Rather than leading conversations with future fault-tolerant capabilities, Carman focuses on practical applications that already exist. Current quantum systems can accelerate artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, machine learning development, materials science research, chemistry, logistics optimization, and other computational challenges alongside existing infrastructure.
“It’s about acceleration today and optimization later,” he says. “Accelerate with the current technology available with quantum today and over the next two to three years. Optimize in the future.” This approach helps overcome one of the biggest barriers in enterprise selling emerging technologies: demonstrating value before customers fully understand what the technology can become.
A Different Revenue Thesis for Quantum Markets
Traditional enterprise software rewards quarterly execution. Quantum requires a fundamentally different revenue thesis. Carman believes organizations must stop evaluating progress exclusively through quarterly financial metrics and instead measure readiness against scientific milestones that determine future market opportunities. “Quantum requires a new time paradigm for measuring performance,” he says. He draws a comparison to generative AI. Organizations that had already invested in infrastructure, engineering capability, and commercial preparation before ChatGPT’s breakthrough release in the Fall of 2022 were positioned to move immediately. Those that waited found themselves chasing competitors.
Scientific milestones such as MegaQuOps, FTQC, and eventually utility-scale quantum computing create predictable moments of market acceleration. Businesses prepared across science, engineering, and commercialization will be positioned to capture disproportionate value as each milestone arrives. This represents building revenue before fault tolerance arrives, not by forcing premature adoption, but by ensuring commercial organizations mature alongside technological progress and to accomplish this commercial readiness without disrupting scientific progress. Carman says, “that’s where IQ and EQ meetup for success or failure.”
Commercial Leadership Matters as Much as Scientific Leadership
Emerging technologies often celebrate scientific breakthroughs, while overlooking the discipline required to build sustainable markets. For Carman, long-term leadership will depend on execution across three equally important dimensions: scientific excellence, engineering excellence, and commercial excellence. “The answer is that it comes down to execution on readiness,” he says. “Those labs that accomplish scientifically will be in a great position. Those companies ready from an engineering side will win. And those commercial teams that execute on the fundamentals will also win.”
Instead of demanding the spotlight, commercial teams should quietly establish relationships, identify opportunities, build partner ecosystems, and create scalable processes, while researchers and engineers continue advancing the technology itself. “So much focus is placed on science and engineering. Too little focus is paid to commercial readiness.”
Quantum computing’s future will ultimately be determined by scientific innovation. But its commercial future will belong to organizations that understand market creation, invest in commercial infrastructure, and prepare customers long before the technology reaches its final form. The race has already begun, even if many companies have yet to recognize that the starting line is behind them.
Follow Gregg Carman on LinkedIn or visit his website for more insights on commercial strategy, deep tech, and quantum leadership.
